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State Budget Update

Christie Administration, Legislative Budget Officer Release Updated Revenue Projections

Legislative Budget and Finance Officer David Rosen and State Treasurer Andrew Sidamon-Eristoff this week provided the Senate and Assembly Budget committees with revenue updates for the current 2010 fiscal year and the 2011 fiscal year, which begins on July 1.

Legislative Services' Projections

Rosen, of the Office of Legislative Services (OLS), projects that fiscal 2010 and fiscal 2011 revenues will come in a total of $767 million less than estimated in the Governor’s March budget message. For fiscal 2010, Rosen says revenues are $402 million less than the Governor’s original estimates. His fiscal 2011 revenue estimates are $365 million below the budget message projections. These shortfalls are significantly higher than the April revenue projections, which estimated a $249 million discrepancy.

The largest difference is in income tax collections, which OLS now estimates are $425 million below original projections, a shortfall of 3 percent. This revised income tax revenue estimate includes a $300 million shortfall for the current fiscal year, leaving only a little more than a month for the Legislature and Administration to fill the gap.

The OLS says the sales tax for both fiscal years is $148 million below projections. For the Corporation Business Tax, OLS revised its projection downward by $139 million. The OLS is projecting higher collections for some smaller revenue sources, including inheritance taxes, real estate transfer fees and insurance premium taxes.

Christie Administration's Projections

The Christie Administration is lowering its revenue forecast for fiscal 2010 by $325 million, $77 million less than the OLS revised projections, Treasurer Sidamon-Eristoff said. The Administration has identified $232 million in budgeted but not spent dollars in the current budget and $92 million in reductions to anticipated supplemental appropriations to make up the deficit.

For fiscal 2011, the Administration projects revenues will be $28.2 billion, $115 million less than its March estimates. This revision is $250 million higher than the OLS projections. The revenue decrease is largely attributable to a shortfall in income tax collections.

The Administration is striving for a $500 million surplus in its proposed $29.3 billion budget for fiscal 2011, but the latest revenue collections has the reserve estimated at $305 million, Sidamon-Eristoff said.

Please contact Mary Ellen Peppard at (609) 989-7888 with any questions.

*Provided by the NJ State Chamber of Commerce